As you may recall, after the 2nd and 3rd Sunday of the NFL season, I dropped my NFL forecasts on a stunned public. (you can read those
here and
here). Now it is time to pay the piper, get my comeuppance, or whatever.
Looking over the week 2 remarks, I find I absolutely nailed some things on the head, and missed miserably on others. I didn�t make hard predictions in this piece, so judging will be more ambiguous, and since I�m judging myself, I�m going to be soft. Hey, it�s my damn website, if you don�t like it, get your own (and you may as well, I mean, in the words of Strongbad, �the internet is a place where absolutely nothing happens, and you should take advantage of that�)
For starters, I was Really high on the Patriots, Broncos, Saints, and Dolphins, figuring they were the four best teams in the NFL after two weeks. They all finished 9-7, and Missed the playoffs. The Dolphins had the leading rusher and sack man in the NFL. The Broncos had the best �yardage gained to yardage allowed� ratio in the NFL. The Patriots were defending champs, and the Saints looked like title contenders until an inexplicable late-season collapse. What a fucked-up year�
I mentioned the Raiders, although I wasn�t convinced about them. They turned out to be the only good team of the lot. I don�t know what I was thinking with the Bears (well, they Were 2-0!!)
Moving along, I called the Panthers and Chargers, at the time, �bad.� They both missed the playoffs, and the Panthers lost about 8 games in a row at one point, but the Chargers 8-8 season was hardly �bad.� I absolutely nailed the Falcons, calling them the �best 0-2 team in NFL history,� and predicted better things for the Steelers. Nobody couldv�e expected the Rams stunning fall fro grace.
I predicted the Ravens, Lions, Bengals, and Texans to average 4 wins each. The Ravens made a playoff push, finishing 7-9. The Bengals, Texans, and Lions won a combined 9 games. I was Close. I was absolutely wrong about the AFC South -- and the Titans -- as they had a 10-6 team (Colts) and a 11-5 team (Titans). As far as the NFC East, I was absolutely wrong about the Eagles, but kinda right about the Giants.
Finally, I described the Browns, Jets, Bills, Chiefs, Niners, Cardinals, and Seahawks �mediocre.� Only the Cardinals truly sucked, and everyone else on this list had 7, 8, or 9 wins (although the Browns and Jets made the playoffs) except the Niners, who were 10-6, but won a shitty division and were hardly inspiring much of the year. I also described the Packers and Bucaneers as �mediocre,� and they ended up as the #2 and #3 seeds in the NFC.
Moving on to the Weeks 3 forcast, in which I actually made some hard predictions about who would win which division and such.
I went to great lengths to make a point that the Panthers and Chargers, both 3-0 at the time, Would NOT make the playoffs. I�m patting myself on the back vigorously right now, although it must be said the Chargers absolutely collapsed sitting at 6-2 at the turn and looking very legit, they stumbled to 8-8.
I should have seen the Bears as a �hot team that will falter,� instead of stammering about the Raiders and Browns. My failure to recognize the Bears as a disaster waiting to happen will forever be the thorn in the side of this year�s NFL forecasts. But more on that later. In the �teams with seemingly no chance,� paragraph, none of the teams I mentioned really did much (the Falcons were a team that most people figured would come around, and the Chiefs did make things a little interesting after getting off to a slow start) but my theory was proved by the fact that two AFC playoff teams started 1-4, the Titans and Jets, and the Titans rebounded from an early-season 4-game losing streak to grab the #2 seed, and first-round bye. For that matter, the Raiders also suffered a 4-game losing streak, but theirs took them from 4-0 to 0-4, but for a time it looked like a collapse was inevitable.
Revisiting the �bottom four� of the Ravens, Bengals, Texans, and Lions. Those four teams actually Did combine for 16 wins� but the Ravens had 7 of them, and were semi-playoff contenders, and I can�t really give myself credit for that
Let�s ponder this for a bit. The Patriots, Dolphins, And Broncos are OUT of the playoffs, but the Browns and Jets are IN??!!! After three weeks, the Pats and Broncos looked like world-beaters, and so I Obviously had them winning their respective divisions along with the #1 and #2 seeds, with the Dolphins, maybe the third-best team at the time, relegated to a Wild card. None of these teams made it. Holy shit.
The Raiders, who I picked as a Wild-card, won their division, and got the #1 seed. The Browns, who I had tabbed to win the AFC North after the Steelers lousy start, grabbed a Wild-card. The Colts didn�t win the division, but did grab a Wild-card as well. To my credit, I had the Titans and Jets listed � along with the Chiefs � as my �close but no cigar� teams. That helps out a bit.
Moving to the NFC� what the fuck was I thinking with the Bears. AUUGH!!! I shoulda seen it, I shoulda seen it, I shoulda seen it. Dammit.
Other than that, I couldn�t have Been more right about the �Niners, frankly, and I was close enough about the Eagles. The Saints were my sure-fire #1 team, and suffered through an inexplicable collapse, sitting at 9-4 looking at the Vikings, Bengals, and Panthers. 12-4, you say? Nope, 9-7, and home for Janurary. What The Fuck!?
Green Bay was Way better than I realized, but at least I had them as a Wild-card. Atlanta may have backed in, but I was also as right as can be about them. As in my AFC bracket, two of my three �close but no cigar� teams made the playoffs; Tampa as a division winner and #2 seed (just like the Titans) and the Giants grabbing a Wild-card with a 10-6 record (just like the Colts!). The St. Louis Rams� well, its all been said about them.
So, how did I do? All things considered, not bad at all. If not for the Bears, I would say I did good, in fact.
