I guess its time to post my picks

well, the loser of Sunday night's big 0-3 clash between the Vikings and Seahawks is officially "out of it." You can recover from a 1-3 record -- in fact, New England was 1-3 last year and won the damn Super Bowl -- but 0-4 pretty much dooms you to 12 weeks of football purgatory. Play for "respect" and trying to salvage the season. The loser Sunday night officially joins the flunky teams in the NFL, the winner stays in that group of 20-24 teams that are still "in it" and aren't really any better or worse than most anyone else, save for the elite few and the flunkies. Where does this Hawks season lead?

Denver over Baltimore
Green Bay over Carolina
New England over San Diego
Cleveland over Pittsburgh
Minnesota over Seattle

I'm going to hell for not picking the Cougs... and I really want them to win...
Arizona over N. Texas
UCLA over S.D. St.
ASU over Stanford
OSU over USC
Cal-Berkely over WSU

So this evening/tonight I headed over to Cap'n Jon's to "do something." Anneke was on a major cleaning jag, and Jon decided it would be besat to just clear out (really the best thing to do) and came up with the excuse of heading down to Boeing Field, where he needed to stop by the office and do some paperwork.

At first I was reluctant, of course, wondering if I was just supposed to stick my fingers up my ass while I waited for him to do some shit. I did want to head out, and maybe drive around aimlessly like the good old days, and this did provide an excuse to get out. He reassured me it would be quick, he just had to turn in a couple invoices (being officially unemployed, Jon is now a contract pilot, which means instead of drawing a paycheck, he must now beg for his slice of the money he has earned for the company... god bless America). So we headed out.

Of course, after his very brief "paperwork," we walked arond the ramp for a bit and headed over to the hanger. I suppose at this point I should point out that as we were arriving at the office, I got the chance to meet Chris Degarmo, who was in the band Queensryche, and is now a pilot for NEA. It really wasn't all that great, he was just another guy in a nice Mercedes.

So, I got to sit in a couple airplanes, and generally soak up a bit of the good 'ole aviation business.

But the whole point of this is that as I was doing all this, it was just another reminder of the fact that I am completely wasting my life.

So as we were leaving, right as I turned on the car (the timing couldn't have been more perfect) "Gimme Shelter" came on the radio, tuned to KZOK 102.5 FM. What a great fucking song. We cranked it up and sang along:

Oh a storm is threat'ning my very life today
If I don't get some shelter
Oh yeah, I'm gonna fade away

War, children, it's just a shot away, it's just a shot away
War, children, it's just a shot away, it's just a shot away

See the fire sweepin' out very street today
Burns like a red coal carpet, mad bull lost its way

War, children, it's just a shot away, it's just a shot away
War, children, it's just a shot away, it's just a shot away

Rape! Murder! It's just a shot away, it's just a shot away
Rape! Murder! It's just a shot away, it's just a shot away

The floods is threat'ning my very life today.
Gimme, gimme shelter or I'm gonna fade away

War, children, it's just a shot away, it's just a shot away
It's just a shot away, it's just a shot away, it's just a shot away

Love, sister, it's just a kiss away, it's just a kiss away
It's just a kiss away, it's just a kiss away
It's just a kiss away, it's just a kiss away

We were ostensibily headed back to the condo(m) but it seems neither Jon or I really wanted to go back. Ultimately, we decided to stop by McDonalds for a couple burgers, then swing by 7-11 for a 6-pack of Corona, and sit out on the baclony and eat our burgers, and rink some Corona.

After that, I came home.

Do you give a fuck?

This quiz style was designed by alanna, adapted by Batfish Designs, and created by Missanthropy.

So I�ve been feeling a little melancholy this week. Actually, seeing as how I am generally just sort of depressed anyway, �melancholy� for me would probably be a little closer to �wrist-slitting-erific� for most people, but that whole rant is off topic just now. So, anyway, about the melancholy.

Unless you were comatose or still recovering from Oktoberfest, you were aware that the Autumnal Equinox, aka the First Day of Fall, was Monday (the 23rd, as it were). I know that to many people, particularly those associated with school, or have kids who go to school, or are just generally big football fans, �fall� starts just after Labor Day. In fact, I�ve always said that �official summer� (as compared to the �calendar summer�) starts on Memorial Day Weekend, and ends Labor Day Weekend. Of course, before college, it was end of school to beginning of school, as I suppose it is for the aforementioned school-related people. But I�m once getting drifting off topic.

So, anyway, its Fall� or Autumn. Whatever. But even more so, for me, is the realization that October is a week away.

I suppose I should point out in my post-school, post college reality, September is a �transitional month.� There are two of them a year, the other being May. These are the months when Seattle is transitioning from its otherwise gloomy, rainy self, into its glorious, god-damn-it-this-is-the-best-place-to-live-on-the-fucking-planet self, and then back. September is usually a beautiful month, like it has been this year. Warm, but not hot, generally not very wet, there is as little snow up in them thar mountains as there will be all year, and the bugs are not as bad. It�s good stuff. Unfortunately, it�s on the �down slope,� and Everyone realizes it. At the beginning of the month, you realize the sun is actually setting before 8. By the end of the month, you realize the sun is setting before 7. And that has always been a bit brutal psychologically, on me at least.

October is usually a pretty nice month, as well. So is April, for that matter. In fact, they seem pretty similar to me. Both can be pretty damp, but they have their share of very nice days, and because of the rainy ones you appreciate them more. April, however, is at the peak of the �upward slope,� and being such always seems filed with such optimism. October is more or less the start of the rainy season, and we all know that November is the wettest month of the year, and well� it�s all downhill once October starts. Granted, that doesn�t keep us from enjoying the handful of great days that October usually offers us, but it�s always seemed to me there is a certain sense of urgency which accompanies those days. The kids are out playing soccer, and the moms are just glad they won�t be wet and muddy after the game. The joggers, hikers, bikers, boaters, and such are all out trying to get as much of their schwerve on as they can knowing the end is near.

When I was a kid, there were always a lot of pleasant diversions to keep me happy in the fall. After I got over the crushing psychological blow of school starting, I had soccer season, football to watch (back in the Seahawks �glory days of �83-�89), cider to make, pumpkins to gather and carve� and later in high school, I had cross country as well. When I hit college, I was happy that school started, mainly because, being a student, that was my purpose in life. I didn�t much enjoy my summers in those days� it was kind of stupid looking back on it, but I digress (again).

As an �adult� I�ve found a real appreciation for this time of year. However, there is an odd �relic depression� that sets in. Beyond that, though, is that I usually just can�t get over that summer is over, and there are all these things I didn�t do.

I suppose that is a big part of my problem, and why I suck. Most mentally healthy people look back with fondness on what they did. I always seem to dwell on what I didn�t do. And then I get frustrated with myself and my life.

Summer of �97, I finished college (the 6-week summer session ended July 30th), then went on my epic Alaska trip with Tyler. Despite having to move back to the rent�s house, I was pretty cool with it all. I was going to screw around for a year, and go on another adventure the next summer. That was a great fall. I was coaching the cross country team back at my high school, and training for the Seattle Marathon. I worked a crappy part-time job at RPS, but in late October I started that sweet cosmetics stockroom job at Nordstrom. Things were good.

Summer of �98 was the epic summer of hiking the PCT. After Labor Day, however, I began to realize it was time for me to start looking for a �real job,� and that whole prospect scared me to death. I was also a little disappointed in myself for not finishing the hiking I had set out to do at the beginning of the summer. I remember visiting Bellingham a couple times to visit the WWU Career Center, and a couple other times to �hang out.� Greg was the only one left up there any more, and I remember feeling pretty melancholy about the whole experience, sort of a �college is really behind you know� type thing. I was a supposedly a full-fledged adult then, and I didn�t handle it too well. Jon also moved out to Michigan that October for a flying job (he would be back in May) and that sorta sucked to.

After that, Fall has just reminded me of the end of youthful, carefree Summer. In �99 I climbed the volcanoes, but I actually worked through the entire summer for the first time in a while, and that made me feel like I was missing out on a lot of things. I felt satisfied enough with my summer that fall wasn�t so bad that year.

In �00, August was blown by my quitting a job, finding/getting a new one, and moving into and preparing this house. I had suffered a knee injury in May, and was out of shape much of the summer, and didn�t do any climbing, nor much hiking (except for a one-week vacation hike out on the coast). I sort of felt like that summer had been blown, and I cam remember feeling really disappointed and desparate about this time. I had the new house to take a bit of the sting off, however.

Well, I�m sort of rambling here, and I�m trying to remember what point I was getting to. I guess it�s just that the weather has been so damn nice this week, it�s like a tease, and I keep thinking of all the shit I Didn�t Do this summer. I�ve dwelt too much on where my life is going (or isn�t going) and I just want to go out, lie on a beach or something, and try to soak up as much of this beauty as possible and try to get a clear head.

after a much-too-long sabbatical, the Good Doctor is back

Here are next week's "Pick 'em" games. If you haven't figured it out by now, It is the Sunday and Monday night matchups, the Hawk's game, and two others that look interesting to me. This week, the Hawk's have the Sunday night game, so a third "interesting" game has been selected:
Monday: Denver @ Baltimore
Sunday night: Minnesota @ Seattle
New England @ San Diego
Carolina @ Green Bay
Cleveland @ Pittsburgh

The PAC-10 intra-conference games get going next weekend, so this starts to count
WSU @ Cal-Berkely
Oregon State @ USC
Stanford @ Arizona State
UCLA @ San Diego State
North Texas @ Arizona

email me at jake@ambiguously-disgruntled.com with your picks

it's time to look at the "Pick 'Em" results.

Jake (that's me!)
NFL: 26 points
PAC-10: 9 points

Tyler
NFL: 25 points
PAC-10: 19 points

Tad:
NFL: 25 points
PAC-10: 9 points

Greg:
NFL: 9 points

Laurie:
NFL: 14 points

Greg:
NFL: 15 points

And it looks like I am the winner! Woo hoo! With props to Tyler for winning the PAC-10, and scoring the most overall points, and having the highest two-week total. But as we all know, PAC-10 doesn't count until NEXT WEEKEND and the NFL cumulative season total doesn't start until NEXT WEEKEND.

So get your freakin' picks in!

as I've said before, if ya don't know what's goin' on read here and then here (if you want to) and figure it out.

Some of you will read this and not participate, because you are LAME! I have prepared the following, to try to convince you to send me your picks:

You say: "But I haven't put any thought into it."
I say: "Perfect, that is the best mindset for picking NFL games, as far as I'm concerned. Most of you would be Shocked to discover how little thought I put into my picks. I maybe spend 10 seconds pondering each game. It takes about a minute total. It's not like I'm studying over these matchups for hours.

You say: "But I don't really pay attention."
I say: "Okay, I'm someone who 'pays attention' and I scored a whopping NINE (9) on my NFL picks last week, and a whopping NINE (9) on my PAC-10 picks this week. I'm sure you can at least challenge that kind of 'knowledge!'"

You say "It's too complicated"
I say "If that's the case, you must have trouble dressing yourself in the morning. You pick the winner in 5 games, you arrange them in order of how strongly you feel about each pick. Gee, tough."

Before the NFL season, I decided to forgo posting my NFL picks, choosing to not join the throngs of people who consistently seem to get it all wrong.

Well, I've changed my mind... sort of. Now, three weeks into the NFL season, I am prepared to give my NFL forecast.

Some of you may think this is cheating, seeing as how I can get a better determination of who is a contender now that (most teams) have played 3 games. While I will not argue with this, it is also important to note that this IS THE NFL, and to beat a dead horse, even after three games, you simply Do Not know what is going to happen in this league!

After three weeks, it is the opinion of This Writer the following are Always the case:

1) Many team's records are more a consequence of schedules than anything else.
Case in point, the Carolina Panthers and San Diego Chargers, both 3-0. While the (Super?) Chargers may be a solid team with a great defense, I see mediocrity in their future (It is also worth noting that they started 3-0 last year and finished 5-11, but more on that later). Carolina has taken advantage of three teams that are a combined 0-9. Their win yesterday over Minnesota seemed like a somewhat surprising "big win" at first, until you consider that the Vikings just can't seem to get things right, and look to be well on their way to another 5-win season (if that). Getting back to the Chargers, at first blush it seems as though Their 3-0 is a little more "legit" (and, to be fair, it IS) with their wins coming against teams at a combined 2-4. But, for the sake of nit-picking accuracy, we're talking a Texans team that will aspire to win 3 games this year (one of which just so happened to come against a crap Cowboys team in week 1) and a Arizona Cardinals team that managed to beat a 0-3 Seahawks team.

To get even More nitpicky, we can borrow from the much-maligned BCS formula and look at that weird "schedule ranking." This is essentially 2/3 opponent's records, with 1/3 opponent's opponent's records. An important stipulation is that you must throw out the head-to-head matchups when you look at this. Confused?

Carolina's opponents are a combined 0-9, but throw out the games Carolina has played against those teams and they are 0-6. To get a feel for the opponent's opponent's records, you do the same thing for each of Carolina opponents this season (the Lions, Vikings, and Ravens). Doing this, you get a 3-5 record, not atrocious, not stunning either. Now, figure in the 2/3-1/3 thing: 0-6 = win % of 0, 0 x 2 = 0, and 3-5 = .375, add the win %'s and divide by 3 and voila, the Panthers have a "schedule strength factor" of a whopping .125. Do the same for the Chargers and you get a "SSF" of .305. Now consider that the median, by statistical law, for SSF is .500 (which makes it such a great tool) and these records suddenly don't look so hot.

My point? You will see neither the Chargers nor the Panthers in the Playoffs this year.

2) Teams that start hot often falter.
This is closely related to law 1, but this has more to do with legitmately good teams -- meaning they have defeated good teams -- just losing it. It happens every year, and it happened to our Beloved 'Hawks in the '99 season (remember the 8-2 start, and the 1-5 finish?). The Raiders kinda did it last year, looking like the dominant team in the AFC until a lackluster finish handed them a 10-6 record. Who are the candidates this year? That is tough to say, but keep your eye on the Raiders (who with the bye have only played 2 games, against the 0-3 Hawks and 0-2 Steelers) and the Browns (who are a helmet-throw away from 3-0, but against teams that are a combined 2-4). The thing about these two teams is that they seem to be playing pretty well, which is my arbritrary judgement keeping them from the above "rule 1" rant.

3) Teams that start the season with seemingly no chance can win the freakin Super Bowl.
If the Hawks win their next game, against a fatally flawed 0-3 Vikings team, they will have an identical record to last year's New England Patriots after 4 games. Welcome to the NFL. Again, this is a tough one to call, but you can expect at least one team, and probably two, that seem to have no chance right now at least make a playoff run. It just happens. This is also closely related to "rule 1," and again the boundaries are largely arbritrary. Last week I called the Atlanta Falcons the best 0-2 team I've ever seen. Now they are 1-2, beating a hapless Bengals team yesterday. Their SSF is a somewhat uninspiring .389, so they get included here. I also include the Buffalo Bills, who look to have the tools to make a bit of a "Cinderella" run. They are 1-2 with a .495 SSF, having defeated only the aforementioned Vikings (in an OT squeaker, helped by two missed PAT's), but they also lost a heartbreaker to the Jets, and in Denver to a Broncos team that looks like Super Bowl contenders. The Chiefs are an interesting conundrum. They "should" be 0-3, but for a helmet-throw, but they have the best running back in the NFL in Priest Holmes, and an offense that scores a lot of points. They just took the Patriots to OT in Foxboro, and looked like they would win the game for most of the first half. They have a SSFof .511, which is worth noting. I think they can do something this year.

Before we get to the "good" teams, let's eliminate some who absolutely won't have a snowball's chance in hell this year. Last week, I picked out my "bottom 4" of the Bengals, Ravens, Texans, and Lions, and predicted a combined win total of 16. We'll have to track my progress, but I'm predicting these four won't even sniff contention this season. And that leaves only 28.

AFC:
Division Champs:
New England Patriots (East)
Cleveland Browns (North)
Indianapolis Colts (South)
Denver Broncos (West)
Pats and Broncos get 1st-round byes
Wild-Cards: Raiders and Dolphins
(and yes, I'm aware of the fact I named the Browns and Raiders under "rule 2" but picked them for the playoffs anyway. I've never claimed this made sense!)
What can you say about the Patriots? The Dolphins might be the second-best team in the conference, but must settle for a wild card thanks to being in the Pats division. The Browns win the North by default, maybe with only nine wins, but they could get to 10 or more. The Colts division looks only marginally tougher, and I think they can manage 10 wins this year. The Broncos might be the best team in the conference, and are certainly Super Bowl contenders. The Pats, Broncos, and Dolphins are definitely the top 3 teams.
Close, but no cigar, thanks for playing: Tennessee Titans, Kansas City Chiefs, NY Jets. The Jets just seem to be there every year, the Titans should be better, or it seems like it, Kansa City has a good offense and can hang with anyone.

NFC:
Division Champs:
Philadelphia Eagles (East)
Chicago Bears (North)
New Orleans Saints (South)
San Francisco 49ers (West)
Saints and Bears get 1st-round byes
Wild Card: Atlanta and Green Bay
How good are the Saints? Right now, I've got them tabbed to be the #1 seed out of the NFC. They are 3-0 with a SSF of .630, that's as signifigant a 3-1 record as you will find right now. I still have a hunch the 'Niners won't win anywhere near 12 games this year, but with the 'Hawks and Cardinals in the division, they will beat out a sloppy, self-destructive Rams team with 9 or 10 wins. Atlanta and Green Bay are both flawed teams, but will get there on the strengths of Brett Farve and Michael Vick. The Bears, of all my picks, I am least confident about. For some reason, I smell a "rule 2." The Eagles will take advantage of a dvision with the Redskins and Cowboys, and a Giants team I see as mediocre. They are probably a better team than I want to give them credit for.
Close, but no cigar, thanks for playing: St. Louis Rams, Tampa Bay Bucs, New York Giants. St Louis has too much talent not to win at least 9 games, Tampa Bay just can't figure out an offense, and the Giants ride the "strong 'D' and occasional great play from Kerry Collins" train to a solid season.

The Oktoberfest pictures are up