Well, here�s my take after 2 weeks of the NFL season:
Category A: The �Good� 2-0 teams
New England Patriots:
These guys are like the �01 Mariners (pretending that the M�s had won an improbable World Series in �00), they just do it with incredible defense, generally opportunistic play, great �in-game� coaching, a dearth of superstars (although people have attempted, wrongly, to put Tom Brady in this role), and a slew of solid offensive contributors who seem to take turns stepping to the forefront. Another lesson in Sports Chemistry.
Denver Broncos:
Okay they just beat the 49ers and Rams� holding both the offenses in check� and QB Brian Griese is supposedly mediocre at best and Still on the Hot Seat�?
New Orleans Saints:
They were clearly the better team against the Packers. This is a dynamic team that can score a lot of points.
Miami Dolphins:
They have a �big play� defense that creates a lot of turnovers. They have a very productive Ricky Williams. Jay Fielder is apparently pretty good. I wondered how in the hell they won 11 games last year, this year it will be no mystery.
Oakland Raiders:
A great start, but all they�ve beat is a fatally flawed Seahawks team and a Pittsburgh team that can�t seem to get its act together.
Chicago Bears:
It looks like this is one of those teams that just seems to get lucky all year long.
Category B: The �Bad� 2-0 teams:
Carolina and San Diego:
Let�s see, a combined 4-0 against the Texans, Bengals, Ravens, and Lions. Those are unquestionably the 4 worst teams in the NFL.
Category C: The �Good� 0-2 Teams:
Sub-category 1) AKA the Atlanta Falcons. Has there ever been a better 0-2 team? They lose, in OT,
AT Green Bay, then they lose to the Bears on a missed field goal. Ouch!
Sub-category 2) AKA the fatally flawed �Super Bowl Contenders� St. Louis Rams and Pittsburgh Steelers. These guys won�t be considered �good� too much longer if they keep this crap up. The Steelers have Kordell at QB and a pass defense that has been exposed. The Rams� well, they play sloppy, make stupid mistakes, and are getting horrible coaching
(for a good take on that, read this)
Category D: The 0-2 teams you would expect to be and/or get better:
Seattle Seahawks and Minnesota Vikings: The �Hawks are going nowhere without Some ability to run and stop the run (but more on the �Hawks later), the Vikings need to get that potentially great offense on track and play at least Some defense. We�ll just have to see what happens.
Category E: Do they even have a prayer?
The aforementioned Texans, Bungles, Ravens, and Lions. These guys all aspire to make it to 4 wins.
Category F: Divisional Malaise
Part 1: the AFC South
Indy Colts, Tennessee Titans, Jacksonville Jaguars (Houston Texans are also here, but they�ve already been categorized). If I could put money on it, I would lay bets that the winners of this division (and AFC North) will have no better than a 9-7 record. In fact, I look at the AFC South and see three 9-7 teams, with the Texans at 3-13. The only team out of the bunch (including the North) I can see winning more at this point is the Colts, who have a lot of upside with the Manning/James/Harrison trifecta and a theoretically improved defense.
Part 2: the NFC East:
Washington Redskins, NY Giants, Dallas Cowboys, Philly Eagles:
We�ll have to see what happens in the Eagles-Redskins game tonight, but I don�t see a real power here. The Redskins should be exciting, but I see 8 wins. I don�t think the Eagles are as good as a year ago, and Dallas has a great defense, but a Quincy Carter-led offense will take them nowhere this year. The Giants may actually be pretty good, but more likely Kerry Collins will come back to earth and they will be largely uninspiring again.
Category G: Defining mediocrity
My central NFL theory is that about 24 of the 32 teams are solidly mediocre, as defined by being 7-9, 8-8, or 9-7. A few of those teams win or lose won or more games they �shouldn�t have� to climb to 10-6 or 11-5, or dip to 6-10 or 5-11. In other words, there are �bad� 6-10 or 5-11 teams or �good� 10-6 teams or 11-5 teams, and there are �mediocre� teams with those same records. In a true testament to NFL parity, one of those �mediocre� 11-5 teams won the Super Bowl last year (that would be the New England Patriots). So, as usual, most teams are 1-1 after two weeks. These guys could be okay, they could be bad, but it seems to me they are just �mediocre�:
Cleveland Browns: �should� be 2-0 (with that flukey loss to the Chiefs last week), but then all they�ve beat is the Bungles. They also have a couple of real cupcakes in the division, which should help their win total.
NY Jets: this is a hard team to figure. They strike me as an example of �mediocre� teams posting good records and making the playoffs the last two years.
Buffalo Bills: Like the Pats of a few years ago, will go as far as Bledsoe�s arm carries them. I hope Patriots fans got a chance to see the 4th quarter/OT of the Vikings game yesterday, when he willed to team to victory.
Kansas City Chiefs: so� do they have a great offense, or not?
Tampa Bay: are they Ever going to have a productive offense?
San Francisco: For whatever reason, I just don�t see them as being as good as a year ago.
Arizona: For whatever reason, I think they can manage their division and have a 7-9 year.
Green Bay: Of all the teams in this category, they have the best shot at being �good,� but they are also one Michael Vick play away from being 0-2. I�m not sure what to make of these guys, but as long as Favre�s in town, they are contenders.
The Seahawks: Boy, did Trent Dilfer look good running that offense. It almost made you forget that the Seahawks are destined to win no more than 5 games this year without drastic improvements.
While it�s easy to point at squandered red-zone opportunities (they should have scored at Least 13 more points yesterday) and the kickoff return TD they gave up � and these are certainly factors in this loss � it begins and ends with the running game. Simply, the Hacks can�t run, and they can�t stop the run. Through two games, here are the numbers: Seahawks 45 attempts for a 2.8 yard avg. Opponents 75 attempts for a 6.3 yard avg.
